January 11, 2009

Watch Afficianado's...BUY NOW !

After years of steady increases in price and expansion of brands and production, the Swiss Watch Industry has hit the economic wall. The worldwide economic crash is being felt in the boardrooms and workshops of the legendary companies that make the world's finest timepieces.

Some of these companies have been around since the last big downturn in fortunes, known as "the Great Depression" and records show these companies were fortunate to survive it and most did not prosper until the 1980's and 1990's. The emergence of a larger and more informed middle class in the industrialized nations is the force behind the reach for luxury items such as elite Swiss timepieces.

Many of the elite makers are new incarnations of ancient identities that died out before the new world order that came from the consolidation of brands by The Big 3 (Swatch Group, LVMH and Richemont). Thirty years ago most of the great watch manufacturing brands were family owned, and today Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet are the last of these family owned firms.

We are entering a new and much more challenging chapter and not all the companies will survive and just as fortunes are being lost in the market, the value of one's treasures may be in decline as well. Prices of high end watches will soften and the choice will be made company by company of how to address the diminishing demand. Some firms will reduce staff and production, some will reduce prices and the retailers will run more and more sales to encourage interest in stagnant inventories. Opportunities for buyers are already much improved and trending towards more siginificant discounts as small retailers fight for survival and large retailers reduce overhead and staff to deal with siginificantly reduced business.

It is notable that Ferrari sales have plummeted from record levels to the point that sales have fallen reportedly 75% in recent months.

For the buyer, with the wherewithal to leverage his interests, opportunities to buy at fantasticly reduced prices are here and will continue to grow as the smaller firms fail and the public companies are stressed. Collectors whose fortunes were made on Wall Street are liquidating their prized acquisitions to keep roofs over their heads and only the top of the food chain of most sought after collectibles will retain their inflated market values. The wise collector will see that it is smart to be a buyer when much of the world is selling at distressed levels. The coming months might be the best time to buy in the last 20 years.